Tuition fees and declining university applications

• What the Independent Commission on Fees has missed in comparing the 2010 cycle of applications with 2012 is the Ucas review of the 2011 cycle which reported a drop of 20,000 in new applicants in the year before fees went up (Missing: 15,000 did not apply to university after fees hike, 9 August). The Guardian has consistently misreported a "surge" or a "rush" – your leader of 31 January, for example – well after the figures were known.
That fall last year was mainly among school leavers, with the biggest percentage drop from independent school students, so this year's figures are not unexpected. Nor should the continuing narrowing of the (still very wide) class gap be a surprise – the longer- term trend has been reported by the Higher Education Funding Council for England and the Scottish Funding Council. The policy paradox is that the new applicant profile prefers modern universities to the Russell Group, which reduced its UK intake by 3.5%  between 2008 and 2011 when demand was high, but the government is sponsoring extra places in those institutions that do not want them and where demand is declining.