EAPRIL 2012 CONFERENCE: "Creating competence - Innovations in Learning and Development". Wednesday, 28 November - Friday, 30 November. JAMK University of Applied Sciences - Jyväskylä, Finland.
Conference theme
EAPRIL is unique by bringing together those interested in the crossroads between research and practice and between professional learning and education. Theme of the 2012 conference Creating Competences through Innovation in Learning and Development fits perfectly in EAPRIL's basic idea of engaging practitioners, researchers and policy makers as problem-definers, evidence gatherers, and interpreters in research processes.
All professionals are unceasingly encountered by rapid changes whichchanges, which challenge our skills and competences. The increased demand for continuous professional development emerges from global economy, expanding technological progress, requests for more sustainable development concerning the environment and individuals, and the need to improve education and all these challenges within the context of Lifelong Learning. Transformations appearing in all fields of everyday life and business accordingly call for innovativeness in educational solutions.
Promoting innovations is of special interest as education and research are expected to contribute not only to learning taking place within education but also to development in business and working life. The expectations focus on issues such as interlinking work and learning, raising entrepreneurship, constructing new jobs and better utilisation of developments gained. Generation of innovations is linking teachers, practitioners, researchers, scientists and students but also education with such practices as custom or employee driven innovations or Living Labs. Thus, also research aiming at enhancement of innovations should be designed to be conductedin a way not only of practice but also for practice.
Examples of questions that can be addressed at the conference are:
• How can practice-based and practitioner research contribute to the quality of innovative learning?
• How can practice-based and practitioner research be organised to promote innovativeness for learning at work, for work and creating competences?
• How can practice-based and practitioner research be involved in promoting innovative solutions for education and regional development?
• How can innovative solutions be commercialised by support of practice-based and practitioner research approach?
• How can the researchers, teachers and students in educational practices facilitate customer driven innovations?
• What are effective approaches to assure ownership of research in the professional field?
We warmly invite researchers, practitioners, and colleagues to discuss, learn and share expertise and experiences within the innovative atmosphere of Jyväskylä as well as JAMK University of Applied Sciences where the practice-based and practitioner research and development is embedded within education.
See also Balancing workplace learning and practitioner research across professional fields.

By John Ross. ANTICIPATED skills reforms sailed through Friday's Council of Australian Governments meeting without a hitch, despite state complaints that the federal government's new funding deal left them hundreds of millions of dollars out of pocket.
Western Australia agreed to the new reforms, which include HECS-style loans for diploma students and a guaranteed ‘entitlement’ to government-subsidised training, despite threatening to scuttle the deal over a $75m funding shortfall.
Unknown quantity Queensland, whose new government is yet to reveal its skills policies, also approved the reforms. A spokeswoman for Education and Training Minister John-Paul Langbroek said Queensland supported measures to reduce upfront cost to students as a means of increasing participation in training.
“But [Queensland] needs to be assured that the commonwealth’s proposals are affordable, will address skills shortages in Queensland and do not represent a financial risk to the state,” she added.
The reforms also include a pilot of “independent validation of training provider assessments” – essentially, third-party checks that training graduates have the skills their colleges claim to have taught them. COAG also agreed to implement strategies enabling TAFEs “to operate effectively in an environment of greater competition”, as well as improving information about the vocational training system. A communiqué issued after the meeting said the reforms would help an extra 375,000 students gain qualifications over the next five years.
This included “improving training enrolments and completions in high-level skills and among key groups of disadvantaged students, including indigenous Australians”.
“These reforms will support Australian businesses and drive improvements in productivity by growing the pool of skilled workers, encouraging existing workers to up skill and supporting higher levels of workforce participation.”
TAFE Directors Australia said the “historic COAG agreement” made public providers the key drivers of the reform agenda. But CEO Martin Riordan said the extension of income contingent loans should be “accompanied by transparent and sustained investment by government, as a co-contribution to training”.
“We will be seeking input into the negotiations between commonwealth and the states on the detail of the final national partnership agreement,” Mr Riordan said.
The Australian Industry Group said COAG had reached “an important agreement that ramps up the effort in tackling endemic skill shortages and forges overdue reforms to our national training system”.
Chief executive designate Innes Willox congratulated the commonwealth, states and territories for putting aside their differences “to achieve essential reforms that will underpin the development of Australia’s current and future skilled workforce”.
“Industry will need to be involved with all levels of government to advance and shape these reforms, ensuring the required quality improvement measures deliver the outcomes sought by both industry and individuals,” Mr Willox said. Theaustralian.

By Marielk. The most recent skills forecast provided by CEDEFOP is highlighting that European competitiveness might in the long run be threatened by a skills mismatch. The article indicates that while currently facing large rates of unemployment in many parts of Europe,  the EU can expect 8 million new jobs between 2010 and 2020, in addition to the ca 75 million that will be made vacant through retirement.
This means also that the matching of demand and the available workforce becomes increasingly important. Christian Lettmayr, the director of CEDEFOP commented on this as: “Concerns over possible mismatches should not discourage people from seeking higher qualifications. A highly-qualified workforce is one of – if not the – most important factor for Europe’s competitiveness.”
While this is difficult to disagree with, this might be meager consolation for the students entering higher education who in Europe increasingly cover the costs of their studies. Obtaining a high level of student loan, accompanied with a labour market that cannot accommodate graduates from certain fields, it becomes important for students to make the right choices.
As the sectoral forecast indicates – studying science, technology, maths and engineering would be a safe bet, provided that these sectors face shortages even in the current climate of high unemployment rates. And as Alena Zukersteinova from Cedefop’s skills team suggests: avoid jobs that would imply routine and low-skilled labour. However, while shortages in science and technology are not a new issue in many European countries – one could also argue that trying to deal with this issue on the higher education level might not be sufficient and this calls for a more comprehensive thinking of education as a whole.
The forecast indicates that between 2010 and 2020 Europe would face a 27% increase in the demand for high-skilled qualifications and a similar decrease in the low-skilled qualifications – putting further pressure on higher education institutions in Europe. This comes at a difficult time, provided that available public funding and general affordability of higher education amongst students has been decreasing in a number of European countries, as indicated by the recent HESA report.
However – this report again highlights the potentially central role of higher education seems to take in these debates of societal and economic challenges Europe is facing. Does this also mean we are facing more sectoral coordination and in general more European involvement in higher education? Provided that higher education has traditionally been seen as a national responsibility (even in the context of building the European higher education area), this calls also for an in-depth discussion of what in essence is a national responsibility and what can and should be done on European level, and consequently: what kind of instruments are possible, effective and appropriate.
See also on the blog: The Skills Dilemma, Data and results from the skills forecast, Multiplier les compétences transférables, Employability: university education isn't just about developing skills, Skills: the global currency of the 21st century, Europe’s skill challenge, Skills Monitoring in European Regions and Localties.

By simonbeer. 2011 proved to be a dizzying period for those with an interest in skills, with tuition fees, the end of educational maintenance allowance, cuts to further education funding and rising youth unemployment all making headlines. The riots also threw sharp focus on employment and skills opportunities available to young people.
In March 2011, the Wolf Report highlighted a particular problem with young people taking poor quality vocational courses that lack currency in the labour market.
The Leitch Review of Skills (2006) initiated a process of change, moving from a skills sector centrally planned by training providers and skills funders into one led by employer demand. However, challenges remain. Employers continue to report skills gaps and local and regional imbalances in skill levels. Spatial concentrations of low skills have become more glaring in the current economic climate; as have local concentrations of high unemployment, in particular for young adults. Against this back drop, a growing body of commentators is arguing that the skills problems we face are related not only to skill supply but also to poor skills utilisation.
The Skills Dilemma: skills under-utilisation and low-wage work, released this week by the Work Foundation, is the latest contribution. It warns that the under-use of skills in the UK is resulting in lost productivity both for businesses and the economy as a whole. It argues that this trend could partly explain why the UK is lagging behind comparable countries in terms of labour productivity, despite efforts to improve the skills of its workforce.
The report shows that the problem is especially prevalent at the lower end of the labour market, where jobs too often provide little autonomy, progression or support. For employers, under-use of skills can be a waste of a valuable asset; it can result in a less motivated workforce, which may also be less productive. From the employee’s point of view, under-use of skills means little autonomy, responsibility or progression, along with the frustration of knowing one’s skills is going to waste.
The Skills Dilemma calls for wider recognition of the matter and urges policymakers to implement measures to begin tackling the problem. Among the report’s chief recommendations is the implementation of measures aimed at promoting better job design. It also recommends the establishment of a workplace innovation fund that could provide small-scale funding for skills utilisation projects and support for employers taking steps to address the issue.
This call for skills utilisation needs to be taken more seriously by policy makers. In particular, the report’s contention that any approach to skills utilisation must ‘take into account a holistic understanding of skills’ is one I completely endorse. I also agree with the emphasis in the report on the need for workplaces that provide meaningful encouragement, opportunity and support for employees to use their skills effectively. NIACE’s record of work that champions expansive workplaces and learning through work underlines this.
In the current climate, the likelihood of agencies taking up the ideas in The Skills Dilemma is hard to gauge. But as the report points out, a skills utilisation approach does at least carry the win-win promise of enhancing the employer’s bottom line and enabling workers to fulfil their potential.

Find results of the skills forecast by occupation, qualification, age and gender: just click on the link or the skills forecast banner on the right. On each page you can also search for data by country.
The new on-line tool provides you with the detailed data and results of the latest medium-term forecasts of skill supply and demand in Europe.
The data and results are intended to provide general indications of patterns and trends in skill supply and demand (measured by occupation and qualification) across the whole of Europe. They are based on a quantitative methodology, using a combination of National Accounts, European Labour Force Survey and other relevant data
The last update of the data was published in March 2012. The next update is expected in spring 2013.
Skills forecasts
Welcome to the new Cedefop’s on-line tool which provides you with the detailed data and results of the latest medium-term forecasts of skill supply and demand in Europe. The last update of the data was published in March 2012. The next update is expected in spring 2013. The data and results are intended to provide general indications of patterns and trends in skill supply and demand (measured by occupation and qualification) across the whole of Europe. They are based on high level quantitative methodology, using a combination of National Accounts, European Labour Force Survey and other relevant data.

Professeur agrégé de sciences économiques à l’université Paris I, Bernard Gazier est économiste du travail, spécialiste des politiques de l’emploi, expert au Comité d’évaluation de Pôle emploi et au Conseil national d’évaluations de la formation professionnelle. Il défend l’idée d’une approche plus souple, mais mieux organisée du marché du travail.
La saisonnalité de nombreux emplois dans l’agriculture et ses activités annexes s’oppose-t-elle à la formation de ses salariés?
Au contraire, la formation peut être développée de manière à multiplier les qualifications transférables d’un secteur à l’autre. Cela aiderait les saisonniers à aménager leur carrière, à ne pas s’enfermer dans un seul métier. Comme un moniteur de ski peut se transformer en guide de haute montagne l’été, un salarié de l’agriculture pourrait associer élevage, travail de la vigne, culture en serre… Le marché du travail est élastique. Les gens cherchent leur voie, on peut les aider.
À ce titre, vous préconisez une approche plus pragmatique des problématiques de formation…
Des mesures simples peuvent contribuer au succès des démarches des employeurs comme des employés. En Poitou-Charentes, par exemple, une allocation spécifique permet aux personnes ayant un projet professionnel précis, en rapport avec l’un des métiers en tension recensés dans la région, d’être soutenues financièrement jusqu’à la fin de leur formation. De même, on peut envisager une période de formation pour les saisonniers, lorsqu’ils ne travaillent pas.
C’est pourquoi vous défendez la notion de marché transitionnel?
Oui, l’idée est de construire des passerelles entre les situations de prise en charge des personnes par les collectivités publiques et les emplois réguliers de l’économie « normale », c’est-à-dire à temps plein et relevant de l’économie marchande. Travailler sur les marchés transitionnels du travail (MTT), c’est comprendre les mouvements du marché du travail, puis aménager les transitions entre les différentes séquences de carrière personnelle et professionnelle. Autrement dit, c’est créer les conditions de la mobilité. Plutôt que de laisser une entreprise en difficulté licencier 100 personnes, par exemple, pourquoi ne pas lui proposer de faire travailler 200 salariés à mi-temps? Prise en charge financièrement par la collectivité, la seconde partie du temps serait dévolue à la formation ou à des activités associatives, laissant aux intéressés l’opportunité de se tester sur un autre terrain, de rebondir, de passer d’une situation à une autre. C’est avantageux à terme pour la collectivité, et c’est moins violent qu’un licenciement pour les salariés.
Il suffit de s’organiser ?
Il existe de multiples techniques pour sécuriser l’emploi à l’échelon territorial: le groupement d’employeurs, le coaching, la création d’une école professionnelle susceptible de proposer aux grandes entreprises locales et au tissu de soustraitants des candidats bien formés… Prenez les intermittents du spectacle: ils savent faire du continu avec du discontinu. Aujourd’hui désordonnée, la tendance est pourtant émergente. Il faut lui trouver des chefs d’orchestre capables de mettre les leviers d’action en cohérence. Cela passe par le dialogue avec les partenaires sociaux territoriaux.
Mais comment attirer des candidats vers des métiers mal connus ou peu valorisés, comme c’est parfois le cas pour le secteur agricole?
En travaillant sur la qualité des emplois. En 2001, lors du sommet de Laeken, en Belgique, les Européens se sont mis d’accord sur des critères communs en la matière. Ces indicateurs constituent des outils intéressants pour développer des politiques régionales. La Suède et l’Allemagne, qui sont performants dans ce domaine grâce à un meilleur dialogue social et à une prise en compte des spécificités locales, par exemple, connaissent moins de tensions sur leur marché du travail.
Bernard Gazier est notamment l’auteur de Vers un nouveau modèle social (2005) et de L’introuvable sécurité de l’emploi, avec Peter Auer (2008), tous deux publiés chez Flammarion.

Opcalia Nord-Pas de Calais édite un kit méthodologique « Construire les parcours de développement des compétences des salariés ».
Elaboré en partenariat étroit avec le MEDEF Nord-Pas de Calais, la DIRECCTE Nord-Pas de Calais et le cabinet Anthéa, il est destiné à accompagner chefs d’entreprises, cadres dirigeants, responsables ressources humaines ou managers pour la construction des parcours de développement des compétences de leurs salariés en lien avec la mise en œuvre  des entretiens professionnels.
Outil de construction et de gestion des parcours, ce kit méthodologique s’adresse en priorité aux entreprises TPE/PME.
Il est structuré autour de 4 étapes clés:
- Identifier le besoin en développement des compétences de vos salariés
- Mobiliser les outils nécessaires
- Mettre en relation les besoins en compétences
- Élaborer le parcours de développement des compétences de vos salariés.
Agrémentés de conseils pratiques et de fiches outils dans une logique opérationnelle, ce kit donne du sens à la formation en impliquant tous les acteurs de l’entreprise. Consultez le Kit méthodologique  « Construire les parcours de développement des compétences des salariés? ».
Extrait
Action 5 : Valider, évaluer les acquis du salarié
Validation des compétences:
Interne à l’entreprise:
• Évaluation des compétences acquises en se basant sur le référentiel emploi-compétences;
• Observation lors de mise en situation professionnelle réelle ou situation de travail simulée;
• Tests écrits/oraux réalisés par l’entreprise;
• Entretiens intermédiaires avec le tuteur et/ou le responsable hiérarchique sur les nouvelles compétences acquises.
Externe à l’entreprise:
• Validation par une VAE (Validation des Acquis de l’Expérience): Diplômes, Titres Professionnels;
• Certification (PCIE – Passeport de Compétences Informatique Européen, TOEIC, CQP – Certification de Qualification Professionnelle);
• Attestation de compétences.

Sur le blog de Michel Abhervé pour Alternatives économiques. Quant on ne se contente pas d’asséner des chiffres établis nulle part comme le fait notre candidat encore président (voir Le retour des 500 000 emplois non pourvus), qui après avoir parlé de 500 000 emplois non pourvus (chiffre repris par Jean-Louis Borloo, dont on croyait pourtant qu’il connaissait le sujet!), met maintenant en avant un demi-million, parce que cela impressionne plus, mais que l’on cherche, sérieusement, où sont les déficits de compétences à venir, il est intéressant de nous appuyer sur une approche européenne.
Le CEDEFOP, Centre Européen pour le Développement de la Formation Professionnelle, vient de publier, en français, une intéressanté étude “L’enjeu des compétences en Europe“, dont le sous titre résume bien le contenu “La demande de compétences ne suit pas l’offre et entraîne un risque accru d’inadéquation de compétences“.
Nous en extrayons une phrase clé “Les pénuries les plus marquées observées dans les secteurs et professions où les travailleurs doivent posséder des compétences hautement spécialisées  comme les sciences de la vie ou les professions intermédiaires de la santé et de l’enseignement”.
On a l’impression que la politqiue conduite ces dernières années en France est bienloin de lutter contre cette tendance et a, au contraire, eu  tendance à l’accentuer: un certain malthusianisme dans l’accès aux professions de santé, comme en témoigne un déficit récurrent d’infirmiers et la réduction de nombre de candidats aux concours de l’enseignement montrant bien où sont les pénuries de compétences  les plus fortes dans notre pays, dans le secteur où cette téude met en évidence un besoin accru de compétences dans les années à venir.
Et pour résoudre celles-ci, qui vont pénaliser notre pays dans les années à venir, la solution est dans la formation initiale et donc dans l’investissement public. Encore faudrait-il considérer celui-ci comme une priorité pour préparer l’avenir et non comme essentiellement une charge.
Voir aussi Europe’s skill challenge et Skills: the global currency of the 21st century.

Skills have become the global currency of 21st century economies. Without sufficient investment in skills, people languish on the margins of society, technological progress does not translate into productivity growth, and countries can no longer compete in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy. And, at a time when growing economic and social inequalities are a major challenge, effective skills policies must be part of any response to address this challenge. But this ‘currency’ depreciates as skill requirements of labour markets evolve and individuals lose the skills they do not use. For skills to retain their value, they must be continuously maintained and upgraded throughout life so that people can collaborate, compete and connect in ways that drive economies forward.
Challenges for skills policies are manifold
Many countries have developed strategies to improve the skills level of their citizens, but their success in implementing them varies widely. And many continue to struggle with low levels of adult basic skills, problems of skills mismatch, skills shortages and unemployment.
How can the OECD Skills Strategy help?
The OECD is preparing a Skills Strategy with the aim of fostering a cross-government, peer-learning approach towards improving the supply of, anticipating the demand for, and optimising the use of skills in the workforce to promote economic growth and social inclusion.
The OECD Skills Strategy action plan
Gathering and analysing data
We are currently integrating the information on skills from several work areas of the OECD, including education, labour, local economic development, tax, research and innovation. We are using this information to produce the OECD Skills Strategy.
Developing good-practice guidelines
The OECD, in co-operation with member and partner countries and the social partners, will also identify and develop a set of good practices for financing skills-development programmes and formulating sound, inclusive and effective skills policies. All of this will feed into a comprehensive Skills Strategy to guide countries in developing better skills policies for better lives.
Towards an OECD Skills Strategy and beyond
The OECD Skills Strategy will figure on the agenda of OECD Week 2012 and be launched in May 2012, along with an online skills portal that will feature compelling skills data, country-specific information and policy pointers for developing, supplying and using our global talent pools.
In 2013, we will release the OECD Skills Outlook, which will feature new data from the Adult Skills Survey (Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies PIAAC. The OECD Skills Outlook will be published on a regular basis with updated data and analysis.
Contacts
Andreas Schleicher, (33 1) 45 24 93 66; Kathrin Hoeckel, (33 1) 45 24 93 50
Read the most recent articles on skills
Knowledge and skills are infinite – oil is not, by Andreas Schleicher, March 2012
Presentation: Skills matter: Developing an OECD Skills Strategy, by Andreas Schleicher, February 2012
Follow the blogs and join the discussions on educationtoday.
Follow the conversations on twitter: http://twitter.com/.
Permanent URL of this page: oecd.org/SkillsStrategy.
Also available: Stratégie de l'OCDE sur les compétences (French).

Lagging skill demand increases risks of skill mismatch. The main findings of Cedefop’s latest skill demand and supply forecast for the European Union (EU) for 2010-20, indicate that although further economic troubles will affect the projected number of job opportunities, the major trends, including a shift to more skill-intensive jobs and more jobs in services, will continue.
Between 2008 and 2010 Europe lost around 5.5 million jobs due to the economic slowdown (Figure 1). Although substantial, this is less than feared as EU Member States and social partners introduced policy measures (including support for short-time working arrangements) to avoid job losses. Cedefop’s latest 2010-20 forecast assumes that problems in the Eurozone will not lead to another crisis and that a modest recovery will bring job growth in all Member States to varying degrees. The forecast is that there will be some eight million newly created jobs, but nearly 10 times more job opportunities, around 75 million, will arise due to the need to fill the jobs of people leaving the workforce.
Skill demand: occupations and sectors
There will be job opportunities in all occupations
(Figure 2), but distribution will be uneven. The figures indicate some job polarisation with job opportunities being concentrated in higher and lower skill level jobs, with slower growth in middle occupations. But most job opportunities will still be for jobs requiring mediumlevel qualifications (including many vocational qualifications) which will continue to employ around half of Europe’s workforce.
Table 1 shows the five occupational groups most in demand in the period up to 2020. These groups account for around 90% of the new jobs expected to be created and around 40% of the total job opportunities.
At all skill levels, jobs in demand will be characterised by non-routine tasks which are not easily replaced by technology or organisational change. The link between skill level and routine is not direct. Low-skill production line manufacturing jobs can be routine, but so too are many skilled jobs, including some craft and clerical ones. Some elementary occupations, such as personal care services, are non-routine and relatively unaffected by technological or organisational change. The extent to which jobs are routine depends on their occupational specific and their structural specific components. Medium- to low- level skill jobs have a larger job specific component which is essentially the tasks in a job that can be altered by technological, organisational or even legislative changes. Figure 3 shows the relative contribution of each component to the growth rate of occupations. This implies a need to redesign upper- and post-secondary VET courses for occupations with a high job-specific component. Trends identified by the quantitative forecast are supported by a qualitative analysis, which separates structural from cyclical economic trends. Table 2 shows the sectors predicted to grow most strongly or to decline in the years up to 2020. Sectors expected to expand irrespective of economic growth rates and demand levels are in the top half of the right-hand column. Sectors in the left-hand column are more sensitive to the business cycle and external factors, such as policy measures (e.g. environment legislation) or external shocks (e.g. a steep rise in oil prices). Much of the retail sector comprises supermarkets and retail stores with steady business, whereas the likelihood of reversing the long-term decline in agriculture is low. High growth in the car industry depends on a return to sustainable economic growth. The loss in jobs from manufacturing will slow down considerably.
Structural change is expected to be slower, compared to the last decade, but its extent and related skill demand varies both across and within Member States. Production has continued to move eastwards concentrating manufacturing in central and eastern European Member States. Economic recovery in some newer Member States is supported by specialisation in production and assembly activities, resulting in a relative concentration of medium-skilled jobs. Comparatively high levels of qualifications, efforts to keep down labour costs and better infrastructure have enabled some Member States to remain competitive in several manufacturing industries and job losses in this sector due to relocation outside the EU have been fewer than expected. Numbers of high-skilled jobs have increased across Member States. Services including tourism, health care and IT are still expected to provide most job growth in the years up to 2020, but at a slightly slower rate, partly due to austerity measures and cutbacks in public and private spending and investment.
Trends for skill supply
Types and levels of qualifications in the workforce vary between Member States and there are only limited signs of convergence. This reflects different national education and training traditions and skill demand. Overall in Europe, numbers of people with medium- and high-level qualifications will continue to rise (Figure 4) as, generally, young people will have higher qualifications than the older workers who retire. The share of people with high-level qualifications should rise to more than a third of the workforce. People with medium-level qualifications will continue to account for about half of the workforce. A higher proportion of women are obtaining higher education qualifications than men. At professional level, more and more women are working in several traditionally male-dominated sectors. Young people with low or no qualifications will find it increasingly difficult to get a good job and, owing to a lack of job, opportunities some young people have stayed in education and training.
Mobility within the EU, immigration into the EU from outside countries and people emigrating to live outside the EU influence the size and skill composition of the workforce in Member States and have important implications for skill demand and supply. Cedefop’s analysis indicates that there is no significant negative impact (or ‘brain drain’) due to people leaving one Member State to work in another. However, most Europeans prefer not to move to find a job in another Member State or outside the EU, even though they may have the qualifications. Data indicate that immigration (including mobility within the EU) does not appear to increase skill imbalances or mismatch in host countries. It appears that immigration, generally, contributes to a small rise in the qualification level of the working population.
Matching skill demand and supply
Cedefop’s forecast suggests that despite current high levels of unemployment, there are also some signs of skill shortages. The most significant shortages are in occupations where workers need highly specific qualifications such as life science and healthassociate professionals and teaching-associate professionals. But there are also pointers to shortages in sales, services and some elementary occupations. To gain insight into future skill imbalances, Cedefop developed an indicator of possible difficulties in recruiting for occupations by looking at the likelihood of a job being filled by someone with the appropriate qualification level. For the occupations forecast to be in most demand (Table 1), it appears that, in the near future, there is likely to be little difficulty in finding recruits with the appropriate qualification level to fill jobs for highly qualified workers. In contrast, sales, services and elementary occupations may face very high difficulties. This depends on the speed of economic recovery and other factors, such as the quality of working conditions (which may be poor and make these occupations unattractive) and numerically significant replacement demand.
According to the forecast, the slowdown has constrained economic growth and skill demand. As a result, initially, supply of higher qualifications will rise faster than demand for them. Weak employment demand is currently increasing competition for the jobs available. Consequently, people may be more willing to accept jobs for which they are overqualified and, occasionally, part-time work or other less favourable conditions, including lower wages. Under these conditions, highly qualified people sometimes displace lower-skilled people from jobs.
If temporary, over-education is not necessarily a problem. Better qualified people have a better chance of keeping a job and, once in employment, they may be more innovative and change the nature of the job they are doing. Highly skilled people may also find it easier to transfer skills gained in one sector to a job in another. Cedefop studies, however, show that overeducation tends to persist. It may lower productivity as people become discouraged and frustrated in their job and as their skills, by being unused or undeveloped, become obsolete.
Skill mismatch is more than a discrepancy between labour market needs and particular skill levels as measured by qualifications. It is often about lack of the ‘right’ skills and the mismatch between the fields people study and those the labour market requires. Employers point to shortages linked to too few young people studying science, technology, engineering or mathematics and report on skill shortages in specific professions. About 40% of young people currently leave education with a university degree or equivalent, but it is difficult to plan for the specialisations and wider skills they will need. The search for the ‘right’ skills is, to some extent, reflected in the increasing numbers of students opting for upper-secondary, pretertiary-and tertiary-level vocational qualifications.
But the labour market is not static and the ‘right’ skills change over time and in different places. Macro-level skill forecasts have limits and more detailed sector, national or regional skill analyses are essential to improve the match between demand and supply. Partnerships of various stakeholders, including education and training providers, social partners and employment services are necessary to improve labour market intelligence and coordination. This can be costly, but so too is skill mismatch. Better vocational guidance and counselling services can help people make informed choices about their careers and the education and training they need. They can also help enterprises to plan and develop the skills they require. A highly qualified and well trained labour force is one of, if not the, most important factor for European competitiveness. That the EU is well on track to reach its targets to raise the qualification levels of the workforce is good news and important for economic recovery. However, given the current economic situation, further efforts are needed to reduce mismatch and to ensure that Europe gets the best out of the most highly qualified and most talented workforce in its history.