By Alessio J.G. Brown, Executive Director, Global Economic Symposium (GES), and Dennis J. Snower, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Director of the GES. Global competition and the global financial crisis have put additional pressures on education programmes around the world. Radically new approaches to learning are now needed. A new wave of globalisation is under way, in which outsourcing and offshoring no longer just affect unskilled and manufacturing jobs, but also skilled and service sector jobs. This trend has put new demands on education and training systems around the world, because in this new wave of globalisation, education and skills will be key, in particular those skills that emphasise flexibility and the ability to cope with change.
The trouble is, many existing educational systems are not equipped to face these challenges. The current standard model of learning fits neither people’s diversity of talents and attitudes nor the demands of employers. Schools and universities in many countries, despite recent reforms, still focus on developing traditional cognitive skills, teaching narrow facts and solving routine problems with rules-based solutions. Policies put too much emphasis on secondary and tertiary education, and too little on early childhood education and family and social environments. How can conventional approaches be reformed? This is a major question and a source of much debate, but at the Global Economic Symposium (GES), an annual forum of leaders in policymaking, academia, business and civil society, three approaches were highlighted as necessary for addressing these challenges.
A first step is to make educational systems more flexible in scheduling and timing throughout life, and to refocus on “learning to learn” and solving sometimes novel problems. Current educational systems must be reformed to enable people to take more personal responsibility for their own and their children’s education and development. This could involve providing more courses that are flexible in time scheduling and spreading educational expenditure across people’s careers. It would also mean raising spending on lifelong learning to keep it at least in line with the extra tax revenues such learning would be expected to generate.
Skills development should not be restricted to schools and universities, but should extend from early childhood to old age, from families to school and university, to business, government entities and society at large. A more participatory learning process that features “learning to learn” and “learning by doing” should be emphasised. Active learning, based on student participation and taking initiatives, matters more for student potential than passive learning. Educators, especially in primary and secondary schools, should focus more heavily on developing students’ imagination, creativity, inventiveness, spontaneity, interaction, social abilities and communication skills, which will become ever more important for individuals to become competitive in the globalised service economy.
Schools must stimulate a child’s ability to solve new, non-routine problems, to combine different bodies of knowledge and to interact productively with others. In science classes, students should be encouraged to run experiments on their own, rather than sticking strictly to textbooks. This would require changes in school curricula and in the ways of testing and grading students, for example, involving more open-ended questions and presenting them with ill-defined problems with no simple answers. It could mean organising more group activities and grading the performance of the group, rather than that of the individual. The UK’s SPRinG (Social Pedagogic Research into Group-work) Programs, which develop group-work skills in primary schools, are shown to have a positive effect on children’s academic progress because children are also encouraged to learn to think independently of the group, and to be self-confident and self-critical when facing different challenges.
A second step is to invest in early childhood education. Any reform of the education system has to pay particular attention to preschool and elementary school education. Some countries lag behind in making early childhood education available to all children, yet it is the key to equal opportunity and achievement later in life. Investment in pre-schooling provides not only high returns throughout the education cycle—approximately 7–10% returns per annum, according to some studies—but boosts achievement levels among children from disadvantaged families. Early education must be tied closely to complementary family support. This aspect is highlighted by the experience of Finland, which leads in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) rankings: although formal school starts later in Finland than in most countries, learning benefits from strong family support.
Cognitive and emotional difficulties often emerge early in life, usually before schooling, and are difficult to correct later on. Family and social factors may be at play, which in turn influence classroom performance. That means that education policies should be complemented by family and social policies that provide support for disadvantaged families, help integrate immigrants, improve urban neighbourhoods and reduce rural poverty. One example is New Zealand’s Ministry of Education’s Early Childhood Education (ECE) Participation Program, which targets Maori and Pasifika children and children from underprivileged communities and includes subsidies, community participation projects, playgroups, and flexible and responsive home-based early childhood education. Financial assistance should be properly targeted and subject to conditions, to ensure that it really is used for the early education of children.
A third step is to reinvent education by using new technologies and e-learning tools. Information and communication technologies are the key driver of productivity growth and social change, yet there is a worldwide gap in educating professionals with these so-called “e-skills”. In particular, traditional curricula should be redesigned to allow a more efficient integration of e-learning materials into traditional paper-based methods. Learners should be taught not only how to use information and communication technologies (ICT) in a narrow sense, but also how to harness ICT as tools to help them to learn and think independently. They should be allowed to wander off the set learning path, to follow their own interests, and information search on the Internet or via integrated packages of e-learning materials, and be guided back along the learning path.
Open access repositories for educational resources and open fora—such as that provided by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), a foundation in Brazil, or the worldwide open educational resources clearinghouse currently provided by the African Virtual University (AVU) and Utah State University’s Center for Open and Sustainable Learning, for example—should be established and made available so as to enlarge the scope and scale of educational resources that can be provided to all interested learners. Open fora provide more opportunities for users to act independently, as well as interact and discuss with users interested in the same topics, thereby increasing the depth and intensity of their learning. This partially dissolves the boundaries between teachers and learners, and increases the efficiency of knowledge transfer and knowledge diffusion. Open fora can also benefit poorer countries, where the likes of community radio, audio and mobile phones combine to produce clear education and training value. For inspiration, policymakers could look to the “Text2Teach program”, a partnership of telephone companies, content providers, business corporations, and education ministries which has helped to improve science teaching and student learning at elementary school in the Philippines, Indonesia, and some African countries.
Whether improving ICT in education means investing in state-of-the-art hardware and software, or simply getting the most out of older, affordable, equipment, the lesson is the same: the new globalisation wave is transforming the world and so education must evolve too. Policies that put more focus on individual flexibility in learning, early childhood education and e-technology in learning environments would be a smart step in the right direction.
See:
Baines, Ed, P. Blatchford and A.Chowne (2007), “Improving the effectiveness of collaborative group work in primary schools: effects on science attainment”, British Educational Research Journal, Vol 33, No 5, pp. 663- 680, London.
Heckman, J., S. H. Moon, R.Pinto, P. A. Savelyev and A. Yavitz (2010), “The rate of return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program”, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, No 94, pp. 114-128, New York.
Hwang, D-J., H-K. Yang and H. Kim (2010), “E-Learning in the Republic of Korea”, UNESCO Institute for Information Technologies in Education, Moscow, Russian Federation.
“Global Economic Solutions: Proposals from the Global Economic Symposium (GES) (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)”, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, www.global-economic-symposium.org
See also:
New Zealand’s Ministry of Education’s Early Childhood Education (ECE) Participation Program
The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa)
The Brazilian Fundação Getulio Vargas.

A Lifelong Learning project that bridges the intercultural competence gap between the university and the enterprise.
The project SKILL2E aims to equip students on international work placements with intercultural competences. The model proposes a double loop learning cycle in which a shared online diary using guided questions is used for reflection. Preliminary results illustrate how this collaborative approach is conducive to the development of intercultural competences.
Objectives
The SKILL2E project has three major objectives:
- Equipping graduates with transversal skills required to communicate effectively in today’s and future multi-cultural and multi-disciplinary workplace.
- Strengthening communication between universities and enterprises in providing a model for mutual knowledge transfer in the context of intercultural competence.
- Involving stakeholders at organisational as well as policy-making levels to ensure the impact of the SKILL2E approach beyond the project's boundaries and lifetime.
In order to achieve these goals, the collaboration of universities and enterprises will combine approaches and different findings in the fields of transnational student placements and related intercultural skill acquisition that have so far been isolated. This will be accomplished through a comprehensive training concept with accompanying measures, such as the online communication scenario and cultural mentoring at the enterprise. This action will involve the three relevant interest groups of students, universities and enterprises both actively in the project itself and as the intended beneficiaries.
The chosen approach is independent of both sectors and disciplines. The prototypical implementation of the SKILL2E concept in all of the associated universities and enterprises will facilitate the involvement of relevant institutional stakeholders. These stakeholders range from those who are responsible for the university-enterprise cooperation, to those who are responsible for the curriculum design at all faculty levels, in addition to the policy-makers that need to measure the relevance of the university-enterprise cooperation.
Furthermore, the SKILL2E cultural mentoring concept will improve the transfer of mutual knowledge, increasing awareness of cultural and social issues in the business world. Lastly, it will help balance a theory-based academic approach with practical workplace implications and employability aspects.

By Nicola Jenvey. South Africa has a glaring disparity between its higher education system and the workplace, an issue that can only further harm an economy struggling to absorb its youth and grow in line with its BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – trading bloc partners.
Many graduates cannot find employment – tragically, in an economy facing major problems relating to scarce skills. In short, there is a mismatch between the graduates produced and the skills required to shift South Africa into the next economic gear.
South African Graduates Development Association (SAGDA) CEO Thamsanqa Maqubela said graduate unemployment – defined as that among people with a minimum three-year academic or vocational qualification – had escalated since the global economic recession.
Depending on which statistics are considered, South Africa has between 255,000 (Statistics South Africa Labour Force Survey 2009) and 600,000 (Adcorp labour market analyst Loane Sharp 2011) unemployed graduates. More...

Author: Lorenz Lassnigg. Anticipating and matching skills demand and supply: synthesis of national reports
Preface
The European Training Foundation (ETF) supports policymakers and practitioners in its partner countries in their efforts to improve their systems of matching supply and demand for skills. To this end, the ETF has launched a three-year innovation and learning project, ‘Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries’, which is being implemented from 2011 to 2013. The project has pooled a group of renowned international experts together with national experts from a representative range of the ETF partner countries. Conceptual clarification on the basis of international state-of-the-art approaches and stocktaking of current practices and challenges in skills anticipation and matching in ETF partner countries were the main tasks of the first year. Together with the experts, the ETF analysed current issues and practices and discussed the pros and cons of different approaches and methodologies for skills anticipation and matching in view of the current needs and conditions in transition and developing countries. Anticipation and matching approaches need to be tailor-made to fit the specific framework conditions and needs in each country. The results of the work in 2011 are documented in a first set of papers: a methodological paper on how to measure mismatch, a paper on conditions and challenges for transition and developing countries, and national stocktaking reports (country reports). This synthesis report provides a cross-country analysis of the national reports. For further information please also consult the ETF website (www.etf.europa.eu). The ETF is delighted to disseminate working papers, thus contributing to an informed and lively debate with ETF colleagues, external experts and practitioners in ETF partner countries. The author owes a great deal to the colleagues involved in discussions and presentations during the course of this project, and in particular to Rob Wilson for his thorough reading of the report and his many very productive and encouraging suggestions, as well as to Will Bartlett, Lizzi Feiler, Eduarda Castel-Branco and Timo Kuusela for their helpful comments. The author is, of course, still responsible for the content of this report. Lizzi Feiler
Introduction
This report is part of a wider project that rests on a partnership between the ETF and a network of experts from eight countries, assisted by three international experts together with experts from the ETF. The objective of the project is to find methods to improve the anticipation and matching of the demand for and supply of skills in ETF partner countries. In addition to an analysis of the approaches taken at country level to tackle anticipation and matching problems, three other inputs are provided: an analysis of how matching and mismatch can be measured using the available data (Johansen and Gatelli, 2012); expertise on the specific situations and problems of the economy, the labour market and the provision of skills in transition countries (Bartlett, 2012); and an analysis of how forecasting can be used and developed to improve anticipation (Wilson, 2011). The results are used and taken forward in a position paper provided by the ETF (Feiler et al., 2012). A key part of the project is the ensemble of country reports (see References) provided by the network of country experts2, based on a common framework developed and agreed as the project’s first step (see Annex 2). The project questions some common assumptions about matching and anticipation by accepting the complexities inherent in these tasks and policies – complexities which cannot be tackled easily. This means accepting, among other things, that:
+ matching is not an unsophisticated process of trying simply to fit each and every person into a particular job – that is, of fitting round pegs into square holes;
+ a vast spectrum of skills is used in all aspects of life, and education is not just about work – most people can do many jobs and most jobs can be done by many people with different skill sets;
+ jobs themselves also change dynamically over time, as do individuals and their skill sets.
The synthesis draws on country reports from Croatia, Egypt, Kyrgyzstan, the Republic of Moldova3, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. These eight countries differ in many respects, including size, economic structures, location, history and institutional background, but three particular groups may be distinguished: transition countries which were part of the former Soviet Union, transition countries from former Yugoslavia, and Mediterranean countries. This report looks at the experience of anticipation and matching of the demand for and supply of skills in these countries, drawing upon a broad range of previous work in this area. The project as a whole has taken a broad conceptual approach to the problems of matching and anticipation of skill requirements. A key issue is that the tasks involved in matching and anticipation span several levels of aggregation, whereas the perception of them is frequently confined to selected aspects or levels.
+ Work on skills anticipation is in general emphasised very strongly at the macro level, but it is not taken into account so much that everyone is implicitly anticipating skills needs all the time.
+ In skills matching the emphasis is heavily laid on the micro level (e.g. by the matching models in labour economics), or on the role of career guidance and individual support through public employment services (PES), whereas, in fact, matching also involves practices at more aggregate meso or macro levels carried out by the state and others, for instance institution building, and policy measures, which are taken into account to a lesser extent.
7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
In this paper we have attempted to analyse the practices described in the country reports on the basis of a conceptual framework that distinguishes matching and anticipation as different sets of practices performed by various kinds of actor and shaped by institutional and organisational frameworks.
Data and information play a crucial role in these practices and frameworks, as they are needed for structuring the perception of how matching processes operate at the micro level. The classification systems used work as a symbolic structure that somehow creates what happens in matching. These structures are also an important target of deliberate strategies of matching, for example, changes of occupations or qualifications, or even creating a new classification structure by integrating the new concept of ‘knowledge, skills and competences’ within qualifications frameworks. Anticipation is seen as a set of practices that intervene in ongoing matching processes by introducing an explicit and systematic way of dealing with the future. Three functions are distinguished in anticipation that must be recognised as equally important: (i) knowledge creation, (ii) information dissemination, and (iii) implementation by means of deliberate anticipation and matching policies. Thus the various methodologies of knowledge creation must be deliberately embedded in broader practices and frameworks of matching.
A distinction has also been made between initial and continuing education: the former is related to the mid and longer terms, whereas the latter is related to the short-term adaptations. It is this difference in time frames that makes explicit and systematic anticipation so important in initial education, in particular if it provides broader and more holistic qualifications that need time for their production. The analysis has shown a broad array of matching and anticipation practices in place in the partner countries. Despite this wealth of practices, a great deal of uneasiness with the matching situation is common, and we can observe that the perception of mismatch is often based on rather vague indications, which are often extrapolated similarly vaguely into the future. We can infer that a clear observation and analysis of the current situation is needed. This is an important part of the knowledge creation function, and must also be disseminated and shared among the actors involved. The other important aspect of knowledge creation is the systematic evaluation of possible future developments both by quantitative forecasting or projecting and by qualitative methodologies such as scenarios.
A key point of the second function, the dissemination of the knowledge created, is the combination of that knowledge with the informal knowledge that the various actors in these processes already have. If this is not done, the results of the forecasting models will not be used effectively. Credibility is a function of proper methodologies among researchers, but among practitioners and policymakers credibility is based on the merging of results with their informal knowledge. To achieve this, publication is not enough; practical activities which bring the various actors together in organised ways must be established.
This brings us to the third function, implementation, which refers to a broad array of ongoing practices and beliefs into which the results of anticipation must be infused. Mapping these approaches and methodologies has been an important goal of this report, and a basic finding is that success depends less on the application of certain methodologies than on the quality of the relationship of the main ingredients in the system to each other. These main ingredients seem to be:
+ good data about the present (and the past);
+ a good understanding of the present situation, and how it is produced by the interplay of the various actors and institutions;
+ a robust approach and methodology for the production of knowledge about the future;
+ an approach to dissemination among the actors that is related to practical options;
+ a realistic approach to implementation.
From the analysis we can see some evidence of a firm intention to use forecasting to improve planning mechanisms (e.g. in Ukraine). But it is important to recognise that such approaches have not worked so well in the past when applied mechanistically. Previous reviews suggest that it is not possible to plan education and training systems in detail from the top down, and the conceptual approach adopted here suggests that a mechanical application of forecasting will be unlikely to work any better in the future. The reason is that these attempts will not produce enough credibility for the self-interested actors on the supply side (education and training providers) to act seriously on these predictions, especially if, with the passing of time, the predictions turn out to be not as good as expected.
Another strong message emerging from the reports is the hope that the provision of good forecasts will lead the actors to make good decisions. However, there are different positions and expectations about the uses of forecasting. We know from systems where forecasts have been established for a long time that they do not necessarily influence the actors’ decisions. Debates about what the right decisions might be are common, as is the complaint that young people make the wrong choices. Detailed figures from forecasts mostly commissioned at the aggregate policy level are available, and it is tempting for the actors to take them at face value and to try to ‘implement’ them in one way or another. But there is broad agreement that it is precisely the detailed forecasts and projections that are most often wrong, whereas the general messages that emerge from them that are robust and useful; the key is to recognise that forecasts cannot be used mechanistically to calculate how many plumbers are needed in a given locality. It is a question not of making a single right decision but rather a well-informed decision resulting in an outcome which reflects the uncertainties we all face, and which is ‘good enough’ (and is also one of many possible such outcomes).
So the way towards improvement seems to be to understand how matching happens in a concrete system, to analyse the strengths and weaknesses in that system, and to try to improve by considering the ingredients identified in a balanced way. First, the availability of sufficient data and a good understanding of the current situation must be established. The big gap in this area concerns issues of quality, that is, the qualitative aspects of demand as well as supply; for if there is a lack of information about quality, the quantitative data can only partly be understood. We have seen that many questions are still open in understanding the current situation. Even if more in-depth analyses are available, the policy conclusions about matching are not always clear, as the case of Croatia shows. A good example is the issue of overeducation and undereducation. Overeducation is considered a problem in a majority of the partner countries; the only clear exception is Turkey, where a quantitative increase in higher education is considered necessary for the future demand envisaged. We can see that the evaluation of the situation is often quite difficult. Often there are doubts about the quality aspects of a big expansion in higher education, but on the other hand the returns to higher education are relatively high, possibly also reflecting processes of downward displacement of other lower-level qualifications. Overeducation is in itself a contested and contradictory issue that can only be adequately understood in the overall context; on the one hand a higher level of education normally reflects a better utilisation of young people’s potential, while on the other, if there are quality problems in higher education, the quality of the lower levels of the education systems cannot be expected necessarily to be substantially better. Second, a robust approach and methodology for the production of knowledge about the future is necessary. However, developing forecasts is only one element in this process. Forecasts cannot tell the ‘truth’ about the future but should be used to help improve understanding of how systems work, and what might happen next, rather than as an input for mechanistic planning for the future. In particular, top-down plans based on mechanical forecasts are unlikely to have successful outcomes. An alternative would be to devise decentralised bottom-up implementation processes based on subsidies for skills providers, employers and/or individual trainees. This applies in particular to continuing education and to the need to maximise flexibility and informed choice. Anticipation systems are needed more on the information side of this equation. The distinction between initial and continuing education is vital. For initial education, at least the compulsory part of it, medium- to long-term forecasting and anticipation systems are indeed needed in order to plan effectively for at least some of the long-term investment decisions in initial education capacity and processes.
Third, it is not enough for knowledge to be available; it must be brought to the actors at the various levels, and they must be enabled to use it. This issue is often neglected in discourses about anticipation, as the provision of good information is expected to work somehow automatically. The approaches of foresight and knowledge management consider this point; the option according to these approaches would be to establish organisational or institutional structures that include networks of the actors involved and are able to combine the knowledge produced by formal methods such as forecasting with the actors’ own informal knowledge. This kind of communication can, in particular, contribute to a better understanding of the current situation. Several mechanisms of this kind are growing in the partner countries and should be evaluated and further developed.
Finally, reasonable approaches for the implementation of deliberate anticipation and matching strategies must be found and developed. Policies for matching can be seen as a first step. They concern the current situation and the short term, and if evaluated they also contribute to the understanding of the situation. Anticipation can be seen as a further step. As has been said above, initial education is a priority area here for longer-term approaches. Several approaches have been set up in the partner countries, but most of them are rather recent. It seems that they can provide a sometimes considerable improvement in understanding; however, the question of how to make practical use of this understanding is yet to be fully addressed. Download Anticipating and matching skills demand and supply: synthesis of national reports.

Cedefop's medium-term skills forecasts have proven very popular. But how does the skills project approach the topic and draw conclusions?   
This publication provides an overview of the methods underpinning the project. Cedefop’s forecast is not intended to replace forecasting efforts in individual countries, but to share the knowledge acquired during the development of different systems and methods, and to highlight the results. This shared knowledge can help to improve the methods used in each country and to resolve outstanding issues.
Cedefop’s forecast can also inspire new forecasting initiatives.
The feedback provided by countries can in turn help make the European forecast even more precise. The more solid the method, the more reliable the results. Download Skills supply and demand in Europe.
Introduction
1.1. Background and rationale
Equipping the labour force with the right skills is one of the key policy focuses of the European Union’s (EU) strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. Anticipation of skill needs has received more attention in the EU, as illustrated by several policy documents such as the Integrated guidelines for growth and jobs (2008-10) (European Commission, 2007), the Council Resolution on new skills for new jobs, and the Spring 2008 Council Conclusions (Council of the European Union, 2007; 2008), in which the EU Member States asked the European Commission to report on future skills requirements in Europe up to 2020. New skills for new jobs: action now (European Commission, 2010a), a report prepared by an expert group set up by the European Commission, also emphasised the need for a coordinated approach to improve Europe’s capacity to anticipate change. After a wide consultation among stakeholders, the Commission included the New skills and jobs agenda as a flagship initiative in the EU 2020 strategy (European Commission, 2010b).
It is in this context that Cedefop conducts regular, coherent and systematic skill demand and supply forecasts. In 2008, Cedefop released the first pan-European skill needs forecast, i.e. employment projections by sector, occupation and qualification level across Europe up to 2015. In 2009, Cedefop forecast the supply of skills by gender, age group and qualification level. Finally, in 2010 the first parallel forecast of skill supply and demand up to 2020 was presented.
A variety of forecasting methods are used. The accuracy of methods must be tested and compared with available alternatives to increase the quality of results. At the same time statistical authorities publish new data regularly. Finally, forecasting is an ongoing exercise, affected by changing reality, which means it is important to use the most up-to-date information and to reflect trends and changes to achieve the most reliable results.
This publication presents the complex methodological framework used by Cedefop to forecast skills supply and demand and some current attempts to improve it. It does not promote Cedefop’s methodology as the only correct methodology. Moreover, Cedefop’s forecast does not replace those conducted at national level. Instead, this publication presents the problems that we have encountered and the solutions we have adopted to produce a unique pan-European skills supply and demand forecast
1.2. General overview of the methodological framework
Europe’s pan-European forecast of skill needs requires complex methods, relying on long-term research and drawing on the expertise of several high-level European research institutions. The modelling tools have been designed to enable further development and customisation. The general framework consists of methods developed in two pilot studies on Future skills needs in Europe (Cedefop, 2008) and Future skill supply in Europe (Cedefop, 2009). These were combined to produce the first pan-European forecast of skills supply and demand in Europe (Cedefop, 2010). Forecasting is a dynamic process, and important developments took place in 2010 made possible by the modular approach adopted, which enables the different parts of the system to be improved independently. As shown in Figure 1, the model breaks down into different building blocks and into several interrelated components.
Even though the modelling framework has proven to be rather robust, a dialogue must be established with experts from European countries, who are likely to have much greater knowledge of employment trends and data sources within their own countries. By making it easy to incorporate new data and alternative or additional assumptions, the modelling framework provides an opportunity for knowledge and input of experts to be built in efficiently and transparently.
The project involved developing consistent databases and related tools to produce a comprehensive and consistent set of skill projections for all EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland (EU-27+). The system, models and modules rely upon official data sources, drawing primarily on Eurostat, in particular on Eurostat demographic data, national accounts (NA), the EU labour force survey (EU-LFS), as well as additional data on flows of qualifications. Compilation and harmonisation of the best possible data available for measuring employment was a major achievement of the project. Historically, most countries have invested considerable resources in developing data for their NA. In many respects estimates of employment on this basis are to be preferred as they are consistent with other key economic indicators, such as output and productivity. On the other hand, the EU-LFS has the advantage of providing measures of employment structured by skills (occupation and qualification), as well as by gender and age, which are not available from NA-based estimates.
1.2.1. Supply of skills
The skill supply projections produce consistent pan-European projections broken down by age, gender and formal qualification. The results indicate the future skill supply by highest qualification held as well as by age groups and gender for the population and labour force aged 15 and over. The skill supply projections are compatible with the skills demand projections (when focusing on qualifications).
The historical analysis and projections of overall labour supply by age and gender are provided by an extended version of the existing pan-European macroeconomic model E3ME developed by Cambridge econometrics, which incorporates a new demographic and labour-supply module. E3ME models labour supply as a function of economic activity, real wage rates, unemployment and other benefit rates. At present, the model parameters are estimated for labour market participation in each country by gender and separately for different age groups. This is of key importance for modelling educational participation and attainment since these are known to be gender and age specific. This expanded model framework is then used to create a detailed set of baseline projections for labour supply, disaggregated by country, age groups and gender and covering a 10-15 year period. This model forms a key input for the analysis of the supply of qualifications and provides the link between economic activity and labour market supply. Finally, this link can be used to provide a range of projections of available skills through scenario-based analysis around the baseline forecast, indicating areas that are most sensitive to the economic climate and change.
Modelling and forecasting the supply of qualifications ideally requires a detailed and comprehensive stock-flow model, with behavioural links which can be used to predict the distribution of people in the total population and labour force (employed and unemployed people) by highest qualification held. In practice, this ideal is hard to realise, as a detailed demographic or educational and labour market accounting system is still lacking at EU level.
The methods currently used for modelling forecasts are less ambitious. They range from rather simple models, based on fitting trends of aggregate qualification patterns among the population and/or labour force, to more sophisticated approaches based on econometric analysis of microdata on individuals, mainly using LFS data. All focus on overall stocks rather than flows.
1.2.2. Demand for skills
The demand side involves four main elements or modules. Each module contains its own database and models. The results focus on future demand trends at a pan-European level (EU-27+): by sector (up to 41 industries based on NACE classification); by occupation (up to 27 occupations based on ISCO classification); by qualification (three broad levels based on the ISCED classification); plus replacement demands by occupation and qualification. Together these produce estimates of the numbers of job openings (net employment change plus replacement demand) by skill (as measured by occupation and by qualification). The detailed classifications and aggregations used are provided in Annex 2.
The forecast of employment by economic sector is provided by a module which is based on results from the existing pan-European multisectoral macroeconomic model (E3ME). This model delivers a set of consistent sectoral employment projections, which are transparent in terms of the assumptions made about the main external influences on the various countries (including technological change and the impact of global competition).
E3ME combines the features of an annual short- and medium-term sectoral model, estimated by formal econometric methods, with the detail and some of the methods of the computable general equilibrium models that provide analysis of the movement of the long-term outcomes. It can also be used for dynamic policy simulation and for forecasting and projecting over the medium and long term.
The LFS conducted in all countries provides a source of information for the construction of occupation-industry matrices of employment. These surveys have the advantage of being conducted regularly. They also adopt standardised sets of questions and systems of classification. While there are still some differences among countries, LFS provide a broadly consistent set of data which can be used for producing occupational employment projections within the industries identified in macroeconomic models such as E3ME. The forecasting module designed to calculate changes in employment (expansion demand) by occupation (EDMOD) based on these data works out the implications for occupational employment.
Occupational employment patterns are only one way of measuring skills. An occupational category can be understood as broadly describing a particular job (related tasks, requirements, position, etc.). Qualifications represent the characteristics of people filling these jobs as well as one of the selection criteria for filling a particular job. From the education and training policy and planning point of view, the types of qualifications typically required are important. Even with only weak data for (formal) qualifications, it has been possible to develop the module (QMOD) which allows inferences to be made about implications for qualifications.
In addition to changes in overall occupational employment levels, it is important to consider replacement demand arising from outflows from a job/occupation, such as retirements and deaths, transition to non-employment, net migration and inter-occupational mobility. Estimating replacement demand is not straightforward and is quite sensitive to the data sources used. Ideally, detailed data on labour market outflows and transitions (mainly retirements and occupational mobility) would be required to analyse replacement demand more accurately. However, these are not currently available and therefore this forecast relies on a methodology that is based on stocks of age-cohorts by occupation and qualification, and excludes transitions from one occupation to another.
From the LFS, it is possible to analyse the demographic composition of each occupation. This allows specific rates of retirement to be estimated for each occupational class (but still not taking account of inter-occupational mobility). LFS data can also be used to estimate rates of outflow. The replacement demand model (RDMOD) has been developed on the basis of data sources that are similar to the occupational model (EDMOD). The model is driven in part by the occupational and qualification employment levels projected from EDMOD and QMOD, combined with models and information on the probability of leaving employment owing to retirement or migration and for other reasons (e.g. transition to inactivity).
1.2.3. Comparing skill supply and demand
To provide information on possible labour market imbalances and skill mismatches, a further module (BALMOD) has been added. This module compares the skill demand and skill supply projections (focusing on qualifications) and attempts to reconcile the two.
The possibility to analyse potential skill imbalances in the labour market is important from a policy and individual point of view. Such information can, in conjunction with corresponding demand estimates, shed light on possible future developments in European labour markets, highlighting potential mismatches and thus helping to inform decisions on investments in skills (especially in formal qualifications) made by individuals, organisations and policy-makers.
However, simply comparing current demand and supply projections is problematic for both practical and theoretical reasons. Although the two sets of results are based on common data and are carried out simultaneously, they do not incorporate direct interactions between supply and demand and, therefore, they cannot be directly compared. Cedefop has started to work on modelling interactions between supply and demand, but due to the complexity of the task these interactions might be incorporated only in the medium to long term. There are various other conceptual and methodological issues regarding imbalances that need to be considered to avoid misleading inferences and interpretations.
A final adjustment has been made to the estimates of employment by qualification (demand side) to take account of the labour market accounts residual. This residual measures the difference between employment as measured for the NA estimates (workplace based, jobs) and the corresponding LFS estimates (heads, residence based). Both measures are used in the project (5). The difference between the NA and LFS can be quite significant and needs to be considered, especially when comparing demand and supply.
Differences between skill demand and supply can include:
(a) double jobbing (some people have more than one job) or one full-time job is shared by two or more people;
(b) distinction between residence and workplace (many people do not live in the same country as they work; this is especially significant for some small countries such as Luxembourg);
(c) participants in training and related schemes who are also working in parallel (they may be included in the labour force and in education statistics – double counting);
(d) different definitions of unemployment (e.g. ILO definition versus limited to unemployment beneficiaries);
(e) statistical errors (in measures of employment, unemployment and related indicators, including sampling and measurements errors);
(f) other differences due to the use of different data sources such as treatment of nationals working abroad.

skills.oecd - building the right skills and turning them into better jobs and better lives
How can countries, companies and individuals tackle skills challenges and develop, supply and best use their talent pools?
Download Policy Map on Skills. Watch the video on the OECD_IdeaFactory on skills.
How does a country maximise its (use of) skills?
A COUNTRY CAN DEVELOP THE RELEVANT SKILLS
By encouraging and enabling people to learn throughout life
- Gather and use evidence about the changing skills demand to guide skills development.
- Engage social partners in designing and delivering education and training programmes.
- Ensure that education and training programmes are of high quality.
- Promote equity by ensuring access to, and success in, quality education for all.
- Ensure that costs are shared and that tax systems do not discourage investments in learning.
- Maintain a long-term perspective on skills development, even during economic crises.
By fostering international mobility of skilled people to fill skills gaps
- Facilitate entry for skilled migrants and support their integration.
- Design policies that encourage international students to remain after their studies.
- Make it easier for skilled migrants to return to their country of origin.
By promoting cross-border skills policies
Invest in skills abroad and encourage cross-border higher education.
A COUNTRY CAN ACTIVATE THE SUPPLY OF SKILLS
By encouraging people to offer their skills to the labour market
- Identify inactive individuals and the reasons for their inactivity.
- Create financial incentives that make work pay.
- Dismantle non-financial barriers to participation in the labour force.
By retaining skilled people in the labour market
- Discourage early retirement.
- Staunch brain drain.
A COUNTRY CAN PUT SKILLS TO EFFECTIVE USE
By creating a better match between people’s skills and the requirements of their job
- Help employers to make better use of their employees’ skills.
- Tackle unemployment and help young people to gain a foothold in the labour market.
- Provide better information about the skills needed and available.
- Facilitate internal mobility among local labour markets.
By increasing the demand for high-level skills
- Help economies to move up the value-added chain.
- Stimulate the creation of more high-skilled and high value-added jobs.
- Foster entrepreneurship.

Skills for a Greener Economy
Date: 27 Nov 2012. Start Time: 09:30 am. Location/venue: Homerton College, Hills Road, Cambridge, England, CB2 8PH
The transition to a greener economy requires a workforce with the right knowledge and skills and as we progress down the path of a ‘knowledge’ economy many of these skills will be required at Levels 4 and above. Universities therefore have a key role to play, not only in preparing their students to participate in and drive this transition but also in influencing its direction of travel and ensuring it is truly compatible with the goal of sustainability.
This event aims to;
(i) Help crystallise the characteristics (e.g. knowledge, skills understanding,attitudes, values) of a graduate required to contribute to and influence the transition to a greener economy. Specifically what they need to know, what they need to be able to do and how they need to behave.
(ii) Discuss how HEIs can develop these characteristics through an open and transparent education.
The outcomes from the day will also directly address the goal of the New Anglia Green Economy Pathfinder to create and retain a workforce which can deliver innovative, entrepreneurial and radical solutions to the business challenges and opportunities we face.
Due to a system upgrade our online booking system is currently down. To book onto this event please complete the booking form and return it to externalevents@heacademy.ac.uk.

‘Skills mismatch is a challenge in most ETF partner countries, it has adverse impact on individuals and whole economies, and results in high youth unemployment and low competitiveness of enterprises,’ said Shawn Mendes, deputy director of the ETF, at the opening of a three day expert conference on anticipation and matching of demand and supply of skills held in Turin, Italy from 29 to 31 October.
ETF project on matching skills
The conference was organised in the context of an ETF project supporting the partner countries in the area of skills matching. The ETF, in cooperation with Cedefop and the International Labour Office (ILO), is producing a number of practice-oriented guides that will help developing and transition countries use various methods of anticipating, forecasting and matching the demand and supply of skills. At the meeting, delegates from Croatia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Ukraine and several international experts discussed and validated the first drafts and concepts of the methodological guides. 
Why methodological guides?
Timo Kuusela, who leads the project at the ETF, said the idea of the methodological guides came from a research the ETF did in ten of its partner countries.
‘There is data available, different kind of surveys are conducted in these countries, but there is a lot of confusion and misunderstanding on the methodologies and what kind of problems they can address,’ said Mr Kuusela. ‘So, we concluded that it made sense to develop a set of tools for handling the anticipation, forecasting, matching of skills.’
The guides deal with the issues like mid- and long-term forecasting or how to use labour-market information to analyse skills mismatch.
What are skills mismatches?
Skills mismatches are gaps or imbalances of skills, knowledge or competences. When there are skills shortages firms have trouble obtaining workers with the required competences. Skill surpluses, caused by over-education or over-qualification, are waste of valuable human resources.
‘ETF partner countries face continuous uncertainties on the labour market due to large informal sectors, ongoing restructuring of economy, said Mr Mendes. ‘They require new knowledge and intelligence on how to modernise their education and training provision to meet the demand of the labour market.’
The mismatch in ETF partner countries
Sanja Crnković-Pozaić, advisor to the Croatia’s Minister of Labour and Pension System, said her country had large surpluses of skills in certain areas, and at the same time experiences total lack of skills in other areas.
‘Sometimes you have very strange situations, where, for example, in textiles, a declining industry, you don’t have enough people to work, because it has become such an unattractive area and the wages are low, said Ms Crnković-Pozaić.
‘On the other hand, you have areas where you have absolutely too many people, like in economics, especially on vocational education level. These mismatches are particularly evident on the regional level, but on the national level they even out.
Who will benefit from the project?
The methodological guides developed by ETF project are mainly for policymakers, but they may also be useful for employers, who want to analyse their own sectors, and for training providers, who need to follow the demand for training in the expanding sectors.

The European Education, Training and Youth Forum took place on 18-19 October in Brussels. The aim of the Forum, entitled “Investing in skills for growth and jobs”, was to mobilise stakeholders and policy makers to modernise education and training systems through national and EU policies and instruments in order to enhance growth and jobs. This year’s Forum had a double focus on 1) Education and training aspects of Europe 2020 and 2) the future Erasmus for All programme.
EUCIS-LLL published a Communiqué to the Forum entitled “Civil Society has its say: EUCIS-LLL key messages for the European Education, Training and Youth Forum 2012″ to highlight its key messages on the topics discussed during the Forum. You can watch the Forum online again on http://engage.vevent.com/.
Learn more and see previous editions of the Forum.
Since 2008, the European Commission has hosted an annual Stakeholders’ Forum on EU cooperation in education and training. The purpose of the Forums is to gather a broad group of European level stakeholders and social partners to discuss European cooperation in education and training mainly on topics of a transversal nature. The Forums are organised by the European Commission with the support of the EUCIS-LLL Platform.
Communiqué
CIVIL SOCIETY HAS ITS SAY: EUCIS‐LLL KEY MESSAGES FOR THE EUROPEAN EDUCATION, TRAINING AND YOUTH FORUM 2012
EUCIS‐LLL collected the results of the online consultation launched prior to the European Education, Training and Youth Forum 2012 organised by the European Commission with the support of EUCIS‐LLL. The consultation was sent to more than 2000 education stakeholders, from policy makers to education and training providers. Most of their key messages correspond to the ones from civil society. According to them, education and training should be inclusive and address all types of learners at all ages and adopt a holistic approach including the validation and recognition of non‐formal education and informal learning and their quality assurance. Quality expenditures in E&T should be seen as a smart and necessary investment for the future; financial support and capacity building for civil society organisations is as well strongly recommended as they are multipliers of EU policies in E&T and can voice citizens’ concerns in a bottom‐up approach.
Respondents of the consultation value a lifelong and a life wide learning approach. Education and Training should be inclusive and address all types of learners at all ages, including vulnerable groups and non‐traditional learners. The learning process should follow a learner‐centred approach and include flexible learning pathways. Quality will be ensured through innovative methods.
Non‐formal education and informal learning are key words in the consultation’s answers; they are essential to address learners at risk of drop‐out as well as to ensure active participation and employability. Social engagement in the community like volunteering is the best vector to develop transversal skills and active citizenship among young people in particular. The added value of nonformal education and informal learning needs to be acknowledged through validation and recognition mechanisms on EU and national levels, which will also lead to a stronger quality assurance.
Teachers and trainers should be continuously involved in LifeLong Learning to develop innovative pedagogical methods through peer learning, best practise sharing and also to be updated with the needs and practises in the labour market.
Widening the access to mobility for all learners is also considered as a vital step towards an innovative way to learn. This should happen together with a stronger monitoring of EU tools’ implementation in particular concerning recognition of experience gained abroad. Implementing a bottom‐up approach to get an evidence‐based input from grassroots level in policy making is as well one of the key recommendations of the respondents. Also, partnerships are a good solution in several areas, especially in the framework of the EU programmes “Erasmus for All” (as currently called) and the European Social Fund 2014‐2020: multi‐stakeholders cooperation between parents and/or civil society organisations with education institutions or cooperation between VET schools and businesses as well as cross‐sectorial cooperation between VET and Higher Education are among the solutions considered essential to enable innovative approaches and peer learning as well as dissemination of best practises.
Respondents also underline the necessity to build more bridges between education and work, especially for VET (Vocational Education and Training): more cooperation with employers, more work‐based learning and more career guidance is needed for the learners to be prepared to enter the labour market with the adequate skills. Once on the job market, their continuous training as well as recognition of the skills and competences they acquired is also strongly recommended.
In terms of policy, respondents underlined the requirement for consistency of EU action and a stronger political commitment from all levels. National strategies should be more strongly coordinated and supported with appropriate funding, and challenges should be mainstreamed in all policies.
Investing in education and training is said by the respondents to be smart and necessary in times of economic downturn, as it creates value for the future in terms of human capital. Investing in civil society organisations is in particular the very basis to make sure that they will play their role as multipliers and convey the messages of EU policies to the citizens while creating a stronger sense of European belonging amongst populations and at the same time voice citizens’ concerns. Respondents stress the need to avoid cutting budget lines in the ESF or the “Erasmus for All” programme as they are complementary. Also, project’s impacts should be monitored and high quality projects should be funded through simplified procedures.
Contact: Tania Berman, Communication Officer, +32 2 234 61 38, tania.berman@eucis‐lll.eu.
Note to the editor:
The European Civil Society Platform on Lifelong Learning (EUCIS‐LLL) gathers 31 European networks working in education and training. Together, they cover all sectors of education and training including networks for secondary and higher education, vocational education and training, adult education and popular education; networks for students, school heads, parents, HRD professionals, teachers and trainers.

Par R.S. Mondialisation, organisation orientée client, court-termisme, web 2.0, responsabilité sociétale… Des phénomènes qui ne touchent pas que les sociétés du CAC 40. Pour de plus en plus de TPE-PME, la gestion des compétences apparaît comme l’atout " économique " qui fait la différence.
"J’ai très vite compris que l’image de mon entreprise était portée par les consultants. Dans nos métiers, tout repose là-dessus" explique Thibaud Nahon, gérant et fondateur de Pharmacos, une start up créée en 2007. Située dans la périphérie de Lyon, l’entreprise s’est spécialisée dans l’ingénierie pharmaceutique. Plus précisément, elle réalise des études et audits de conformité d’équipements pour l’industrie pharmaceutique...
Le management des compétences, outil de compétitivité
"En France, la formation professionnelle relève principalement de l’obligation légale (…). De nombreuses entreprises ont alors souvent considéré la formation comme une simple taxe ou encore une dépense sociale" explique Christophe Parmentier, docteur en sciences de l'éducation et expert de l'évolution des systèmes de formation et de l'innovation pédagogique.
Et pourtant, la compétence apparaît aujourd’hui parmi les premiers leviers de compétitivité. Renaît même de ses cendres, le concept oublié de Gestion Prévisionnelle des Emplois et des Compétences (GPEC). Enfoui dans les tiroirs des services ressources humaines, ce dispositif connaît une seconde jeunesse sous l’effet de la loi Borloo qui oblige toute entreprise de plus de 300 salariés à négocier sur le sujet.
Côté TPE-PME, force est de constater que l’on ne mesure pas encore toujours les apports d’une telle démarche. "Quand je rencontre un dirigeant de TPE-PME, je commence par lui parler de développement stratégique. Pour moi, la GPEC n’est qu’un outil" explique Agnès Giangrande, conseillère formation au FAFIEC.
Convaincu par la démarche, Thibaud NAHON a pu bénéficier de l’aide de l’OPCA FAFIEC. Pré-diagnostic, accompagnement par un consultant, financement des actions de formation: l’OPCA l’a aidé à structurer et financer son projet.
"J’ai été recruté il y a à peine 9 mois et j’ai déjà bénéficié d’une formation sur le traitement des eaux et la ventilation" témoigne Julie Delage, une jeune biologiste qui a souhaité donner un nouvel élan à sa carrière.
"La gestion des compétences est devenue un atout concurrentiel décisif. C’est aujourd’hui un véritable axe de différenciation" confie Thibaud Nahon.
En 2011, Pharmacos a doublé son chiffre d’affaires. Et le jeune chef d’entreprise compte bien ne pas s’arrêter là. Suite de l'article...