Monitoring the EU headline target in education and training methodology and country sheets

By Mircea Badescu, Beatrice d’Hombres, Anke Weber. Monitoring the EU headline target in education and training methodology and country sheets.
Executive summary
This paper suggests a visual tool to flag and highlight challenges and bottlenecks faced by Member States in reaching the headline target in the field of education and training. This supports DG EaC’s activities to support country desks entertain an informed dialogue with Member States. This methodology builds on the Joint Assessment Framework (JAF) developed by DG Employment and EMCO to monitor and assess structural reforms under the Employment Guidelines through qualitative and quantitative methods. However, the JAF methodology has been adapted to analyse performance and progress in relation to the two headline indicators in education and training. The two headline indicators are broken down into four population sub-groups: i.e., natives, migrants, females and males. It allows examining whether the four sub-populations perform equally well or if, on the contrary, Member States should make a particular effort to improve the performance of one or more of them. Next, a selection of sub-indicators, relevant for explaining the behaviour of the headline target, is used to identify specific country challenges even beyond 2020. These sub-indicators constitute frequently quoted underlined determinants of educational attainment and thus are chosen due to their relevance for the corresponding policy area. The selected sub-indicators are proxies for: labour market returns to education, family background, investment in education, participation and completion patterns. Country achievements on the headline indicators, sub-indicators, and sub-groups are then visualized in comparison to performance at the EU level. The graphical display shows the current position of a country with regard to the EU unweighted average. Separate graphs also show the evolution over the past three years. This document should be regarded as work in progress. After the European Semester 2012 the usefulness of this tool and the list of sub-indicators will be evaluated and changes to the set might be introduced.
Austria (AT) has set itself the target of an ESL rate of not more than 9.5% by 2020. In the past, early school leaving (ESL) has fluctuated around 10%, but decreased to 8.7% in 2009 and 8.3% 2010, well below the EU average. In the past 3 years, the country has made progress towards reducing the rate of early leavers in all four sub-groups, in particular for migrants. Tertiary attainment in Austria is 23.5%, low in comparison to the EU average. It has to be noted, however, that Austria has traditionally obtained a large part of its higherskilled labour force from VET colleges that grant ISCED 4A level qualifications. This is also why the government included this qualification level in its national target of 38%. The migrants and, to a lesser extent the males, have a lower tertiary attainment rate than the EU average level, but there have been positive developments over the past 3 years for all four sub-groups.
Belgium (BE): Belgium outperforms the EU for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rate dropped in the past years and are now at almost 12%. While this promising situation is valid for natives, as well as for females and males, early school leaving rates of migrants are substantially worse and are currently at 21%. However, some efforts are observed in Belgium to reduce early school leaving rates in of migrants in the past 3 years. The pattern is similar for tertiary education completion rates. Here, Belgium performs very well for all subgroups, and attains a tertiary education completion rate of 44%. However, tertiary education completion rates for migrants are only at 36%. The analysis points to the following reasons behind the successful pattern in Belgium: high and increasing investment rates in primary, secondary and tertiary education, favourable family environments for both headline indicators, as well as better participation and completion patterns in upper secondary education and early childhood education.
Bulgaria (BG): Preliminary results show that in 2010 the rate of early school leavers is slightly below the EU average and stands at 13.9%. Bulgaria has made substantial progress towards reducing the rate of early school leavers over the last 3 years. The analysis of the sub-indicators shows that the GDP spent on primary and secondary education and the participation in childhood education is inferior to the EU average. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, Bulgaria is under performing, comparatively to the EU. While, one the one hand, Bulgaria has a large share of 18-24 year-old with a least an upper secondary education and appears to have tertiary educational system more efficient than the EU average, one the other hand, the share of GDP devoted to tertiary education is lower than the EU average.
Cyprus (CY): Preliminary results show that in 2010 the rate of early school leavers is substantially below the EU average and has remained stable. The sub-group breakdown shows that natives and females perform better than the EU average but the opposite is found for migrants and males. In addition, the gap between migrants and natives is widening over time. The possibility for Cyprus to reach its national target will mainly depend on its capacity to reduce the number of total early school leavers among the sub-group of migrants. The good performance of Cyprus might be in part explained by the large amount of spending devoted to primary and secondary education. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, Cyprus has a tertiary completion rate much higher than the EU average and this is true for all sub-groups. This good performance is also reflected in the sub-indicators. Cyprus invests more in tertiary education than the EU average and the internal efficiency of the tertiary education system appears to stand above the EU average performance. The proportion of young adults with at least an upper secondary education is also high compared to the EU average.
The Czech Republic (CZ) exhibits one of the lowest early school leaving rate in the EU. All sub-groups perform better on average than the sub-groups at the EU level in terms of early school leaving rates. The performance of males is particularly striking. In terms of tertiary education attainment, there has been a rapid annual improvement since 2008. However, in 2010 the Czech Republic had one of the lowest shares of 30-34 year-olds with tertiary attainment in the EU and is still far below the EU average. Some areas of concern might be the low investments in tertiary education and the comparably lower proportion of migrants having completed tertiary education.
Germany (DE): Germany exhibits lower levels of early school leavers than the EU average, except for migrants, who are still at a high level of early school leavers. Although there has been a favourable development of the early school leavers in the past years, further efforts are needed to decrease the rate, for example by increasing the investment in primary and secondary education. For tertiary education completion, we observe that Germany has lower tertiary completion rates than the EU average and this is true for all sub-groups, except males. In particular, migrants and females exhibit substantially lower tertiary education completion rates than males and natives. The development in the past 3 years has however been positive, and this might be explained by positive developments in the participation in upper secondary, investments in tertiary education and favourable family background.
Denmark (DK): Denmark outperforms the EU average for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rate dropped in the last 3 years by more than 14% while tertiary completion rate increased by 10%. Denmark does better than the EU for all sub-groups with the exception of tertiary graduates with a migrant background. The analysis points to the following reasons behind the performances: the high investment in education, a favourable family environment for tertiary graduates and/or better participation and completion patterns, respectively in early childhood education and tertiary education.
Estonia (EE) already performs below the EU average for early school leavers and has set itself the target of reducing early school leaving to 9.5% by 2020. Migrants have a much lower rate than man and natives, but progress was recorded for the later two sub-groups in the past three years. Therefore, the national target seems ambitious but achievable. Estonia has already reached 40% tertiary education completion for the 30-to-34 year olds (an increase of 10 percentage points during the last decade). The country has set a national target of 40 % for higher education attainment and there have been positive developments for all four subgroups, with increases for males and migrants above those observed at the EU level in the past three years. The tertiary attainment for migrants was remarkable.
Greece (GR): Preliminary results show that in 2010 the rate of early school leavers is slightly below the EU average and has continued to make progress over the last 3 years. The sub-group breakdown highlights that the group of migrants is lagging behind and that it will be critical to reduce the number of total early school leavers among this sub-group to improve the value of Greece’s headline indicator. The low performance of Greece is in part echoed by the examination of the sub-indicators. In particular, Greece displays a low participation in early education and devotes to primary and secondary education a percentage of GDP inferior to the EU average. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, Greece is under performing, when compared to the EU though Greece invests more in tertiary education than the EU average and the internal efficiency of the tertiary education system appears to stand above the EU average performance.
Spain (ES): Preliminary results show that in 2010 Spain has a very high rate of early school leavers compared to the EU average, yet some progress has been made over the last 3 years. In addition, the subgroup analysis points out that the group of migrants is lagging behind and that it will be critical to reduce the number of total early school leavers among this sub-group to improve the value of Spain’s headline indicator. The poor results might be in part explained by the unfavourable family background of the population aged 18-24 and lower amount of resources devoted to primary and secondary education comparatively to the EU average. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, Spain is doing better than the EU average and continues to improve. This stands in sharp contrast with the early school leaver rate. This good performance is true for all sub-groups, except migrants.
Finland (FI): Finland outperforms the EU average for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rates are close to 10% and but increased again over the past 3 years. The positive performance of Finland in terms of early school leavers is true for all subgroups except migrants. A similar pattern emerges for tertiary education completion rates. While tertiary education completion is already at over 45%, migrants in Finland have completion rates than in the EU on average. The analysis points to the following reasons behind the successful performance of Finland: high investment in education, favourable family environments, better participation and/or completion patterns in VET and upper secondary education.
France (FR): Preliminary results show that in 2010, France is doing only slightly better than the EU average in terms of the proportion of early school leavers on the whole population aged 18-24 and there has not been any improvement over the past three years. In addition, the sub-group analysis points out that the group of migrants is lagging behind and that it is critical to reduce the number of migrants leaving school early in order to reach the national target. What can be noted positively is the high investment in early, primary and secondary education. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, France is doing a lot better than the EU average and continues to improve. But again, this is true for all sub-groups, except migrants.
Hungary (HU) performs better than the EU average in tackling early school leaving. However, in the past 3 years (2007-2010), the country has made slow progress towards reducing the rate of early leavers; in particular the rate for migrants went up by almost 80%. Future demographic developments, including an increase in the number of disadvantaged pupils, may pose additional challenges in the years to come. Hungary shows a low tertiary attainment rate (25.7% in 2010), which is well below the EU average. Nevertheless, the number of students entering higher education has grown significantly in the last 10 years. The tertiary attainment rates of the natives, males and females have increased in the past three years, more than the average increases observed at the EU level. These increases could be seen as a positive development towards meeting the EU and the national target.
Ireland (IE): Ireland outperforms the EU for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rate dropped in the past years and is now at 10.47%. All subgroups including migrants exhibit low early school leaving rates. However, in the past 3 years, migrants in Ireland have experienced an increase in their early school leaving rate. The pattern is similar for tertiary education completion rates. Here, Ireland performs very well for all subgroups, and attains a tertiary education completion rate of 49.94%. Also in the past 3 years Ireland displayed a positive development, however, increases in tertiary education completion for migrants lagged behind the development of natives. The analysis points to the following reasons behind the successful pattern in Ireland: high and increasing investment rates in primary, secondary and tertiary education, as well as favourable family environments for both headline indicators, and high and increasing incentives to stay longer in education for tertiary education completion.
Italy (IT): Preliminary results show that in 2010, Italy performs substantially below the EU average level in terms of the proportion of early school leavers. There has been some modest improvement over the past three years. In addition, the sub-group analysis points out that the group of migrants is lagging behind and that it is critical to reduce the number of migrants leaving school early in order to reach the national target. What can be noted positively is the high participation in early education while on the negative side the family background of the population aged 18-24 and the resources devoted to primary and secondary education are low comparatively to the EU average. Concerning the headline indicator on tertiary education, Italy is also underperforming, when compared to the EU average. The low internal efficiency of the tertiary educational system and the insufficient level of resources allocated to tertiary education might explain in part this result.
Lithuania’s (LT) early school leaving rate is below the EU average and the national target set for 2020 is to keep the level of early school leavers below 9%. LT is doing better than the EU average in all four subgroups, showing considerably lower early leaving rates for migrants, which dropped even further in the past three years. However, for the other sub-groups, the rate has increased - a contrasting pattern to the trend observed at the EU level for these sub-groups. Lithuania has one of the highest levels of tertiary attainment in the EU. After two decades on the increase, participation in higher education is remaining stable. There have been positive developments for all four sub-groups, with increases well above those observed at the EU level for migrants and males.
Luxembourg (LU): Luxembourg outperforms the EU for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rates dropped in the past years and are now at 7.07%. All subgroups including migrants exhibit low early school leaving rates. The pattern is similar for tertiary education. Here, we note that Luxembourg exhibit high an increasing completion rates and is able to perform more than 11 percentage points better than the EU on average. All subgroups including migrants exhibit very high levels of tertiary education completion rates. The analysis points to several different reasons behind the pattern in Luxembourg. For early school leavers, Luxembourg has favourable participation patterns in early childhood and vocational education. One area of concern might be the comparably low and also decreasing investment levels in primary and secondary education. For tertiary education, explanatory factors might be the favourable family background and the high incentives to stay in education as measured by the employment rate difference.
Latvia (LV) showed sustained progress in reducing the number of early school leavers in the last decade and currently performs better than the EU average. Latvia is doing better than the EU average in only two subgroups (females and migrants), showing higher rates than EU average for males and natives. Based on the current trends and having a comparable better family background than at the EU level, Latvia is therefore likely to reach its national target of 13.9%. Tertiary attainment rates have improved significantly in the last decade in Latvia (from 18.6% in 2000 to 30.1% in 2009 and 32.3% in 2010), and the EU average has almost been reached. However, in 2010, only females performed better than the EU average and the rate for males is well below the EU average level. There were positive developments in this area in the past three years, with increases for all sub-groups, well above those observed at the EU level, especially for females and natives.
Malta (MT): Preliminary results show that in 2010 the rate of early school leavers is the highest in Europe. Malta has made small progress toward reducing the share of early school leavers over the last 3 years. The low performance of Malta is not really reflected by the examination of the sub-indicators. In particular, Malta displays a high participation in the early education and devotes to primary and secondary education a percentage of GDP superior to the EU average. However, the family background of the 18-24 years old is particularly unfavourable. Malta has also lower tertiary completion rates than the EU average and this is true for all sub-groups. The headline indicator has remained nearly identical over the last 3 years. As the proportion of 18-24 years olds with at least an upper secondary education is very low compared to the EU average, there is a concern that Malta’s performance regarding the tertiary educational attainment rate, might continue to lag behind the EU average in the coming years.
Netherlands (NL): The Netherlands outperform the EU for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rates dropped in the past years and are now at 10.08%. All subgroups including migrants exhibit low early school leaving rates. For tertiary education, we note that the Netherlands exhibits high and increasing completion rates. However, migrants in the Netherlands are underperforming compared to natives and also compared to the EU average (tertiary education completion rates for migrants in the Netherlands are 34.3% versus 42% for Natives). The analysis points to several different reasons behind the pattern in the Netherlands. For early school leavers, the Netherlands has favourable participation patterns in early childhood and vocational education. For tertiary education, explanatory factors might be the high and increasing level of investment in tertiary education as well as the favourable family background.
In Poland (PL) the progress on tertiary attainment in the period 2000-2009 has been one of the strongest in the EU. There have been positive developments for all four sub-groups except the migrants, with increases well above those observed at the EU level. The tertiary attainment of the natives, males and females has increased rapidly and this could be seen as a positive development towards meeting the EU and the national target in this area. Poland is one of the best performers in the EU also regarding the early leavers, with a rate of 5.4% in 2010. The country is doing better than the EU average in all four sub-groups, particularly having much lower early leaving rates for females and migrants. In the past 3 years (2007-2010), the country has made substantial progress towards reducing the rate of early leavers, in particular of migrants. For this subgroup the rate of early leavers went down by more than 40%.
Portugal (PT): Preliminary results show that in 2010 Portugal performs largely below the EU performance, with a rate of early school leavers standing at 23.5% However, Portugal has made substantial progress towards reducing the rate of early school leavers and this is true for all sub-groups. The examination of subindicators reveal that the family background of the 30-34 years old cohorts is particularly unfavourable and this might in part explain the underperformance of Portugal for what regards the headline indicator. The tertiary completion rate in Portugal is below the EU average and this is true for all sub-groups. However, Portugal has made substantial progress over the last 3 years. The low performance of Portugal could be in part explained, by the low investment in tertiary education and the poor family environment of the 30-34 years old cohort.
Romania (RO) is one of the few Member States where early school leaving has increased during the last three years, undermining some of the progress in the previous decade. The country shows lower returns to secondary education and this might be a reason for young people to drop from the education earlier; early school leaving is a major cause of unemployment, feeding a vicious circle. At 18.1% in 2010, Romania still has the lowest tertiary attainment in the EU, despite doubling graduation rates during the last decade. However, over the past 3 years (2007-2010), there have been positive developments for all sub-groups with increases well above those observed at the EU level, especially for females. These increases could be seen as a positive development towards catching-up with the EU average level. Over this period, INV TERTIARY has strongly increased (by almost 60%) - a positive development for matching the financial resources with enrolment requirements.
Sweden (SE): Sweden outperforms the EU average for both headline indicators. Early school leaving rates are below 10% and continued to decrease over the past 3 years. Tertiary completion rates for Sweden are at over 45%, which is over 10 percentage points higher than the EU average. The positive performance of Sweden is valid for all subgroups including migrants. The analysis points to the following reasons behind the successful performance of Sweden: high investment in education, favourable family environments, better participation and/or completion patterns in early childhood education and VET, as well as upper secondary education. One area of concern might be the recent tendency of reducing investments in all education levels.
Slovenia (SI) is one of the best performers in the EU in the field of early school leavers and its target is to keep the rate at 5% up to 2020. However, in the past 3 years (2007-2010), the country has not made any progress towards reducing the rate of early leavers; moreover, the rate for migrants has further increased. There has been considerable progress in Slovenia with the tertiary or equivalent attainment rate (34.8% in 2010) which is above the EU average of 33.6%. The country has set the target of increasing the level of tertiary education of the younger generation to 40% by 2020. There have been positive developments in Slovenia over the past 3 years (2007-2010) for all four sub-groups, except migrants, whose tertiary attainment rate dropped significantly.
Slovakia (SK) is the top performer in the area of early leavers from education and training (4.7% in 2010) and is doing better than the EU average for all four sub-groups. In particular, males and migrants have a lower early leaving rate than the EU average and the family background is more favourable. However, spending on primary and secondary education as a percentage of GDP is among the lowest in Europe. Despite the progress made since 2000, Slovakia still has a low tertiary attainment rate with 22.1% compared with the EU average. Over the past 3 years (2007-2010), there have been positive developments for all four sub-groups, especially for migrants who increased their tertiary education completion rate by 15 percentage points. Female’s tertiary attainment has also increased rapidly by 10 points. But at the tertiary level, the investments expressed as a % of GDP are still among the lowest in Europe and this could be seen as a challenge for country’s efforts to increase enrolments at this level.
UK: The United Kingdom exhibits higher levels of early school leavers than the EU average for all subgroups except for migrants. Migrants in the UK perform better than migrants on average in the EU in terms of early school leaving rates. In the past years, the UK made some efforts to reduce the rate of early school leavers, and these efforts are also reflected in the high rate of participation in early education and investments in primary and secondary education. For tertiary education completion, we observe that compared to the EU average, the UK has high and increasing tertiary completion rates and this is true for all sub-groups including migrants. However, some area for concern might be the low and decreasing investments in tertiary education and the comparably low incentive to stay longer in education in the UK. Download Monitoring the EU headline target in education and training methodology and country sheets.